September 25, 2021
Studies: Cal-exodus a myth
OAKLAND – (INT) - There is no evidence of an abnormal increase in residents planning to move out of the state, according to the results of a new survey released Wednesday July 7th by the University of California. This research is part of a larger, multi-institution research project led by UC to assess whether there is in fact a “Cal exodus.”

A UC-led, fact-based, empirical approach to California’s population patterns found:

• By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, Californians respond that they still believe in the “California Dream” (that it’s a great place to live and raise a family) but belief in that dream depends on demographics, economic status and partisan affiliation. Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and younger Californians are more optimistic, while middle-class Californians, white respondents, older residents and Republicans are more pessimistic.

• Those living in parts of the state that have not been part of recent economic expansions, including the Central Valley and northern counties outside of the Bay Area, are most likely to contemplate moving.

• Middle-class Californians making incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the most concerned about the state of California today as well as its future.

• In these polarized times, there is a small gap between the percentage of Democrats (21 percent) and Republicans (30 percent) seriously considering moving.

• Growth is not a goal for most Californians: Asked to look ahead 10 years, 35 percent of respondents believe it would be better if the population decreases significantly and 46 percent want it to stay about the same. Only 19 percent of those surveyed said that the state would be better if its population increases.

• The survey also revealed an 8 percent decrease in the percentage of Californians who opined California is one of the best places to live, down from 50 percent in the 2019 UC Berkeley poll to 42 percent in the 2021 UC San Diego poll.

An analysis by researchers at UCLA found that the number of those moving out of California to other states has trended up since 2012, but that is not uncommon and is similar to levels last seen in the mid-2000s. During that period, those moving into California — both from other states and other countries — has seen few changes.


Story Date: August 8, 2021
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