Israel warned that no Hamas leader was safe, but the assassination of the militant group's political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran’s capital has sent shockwaves across a region hardened by war and conflict.

Not only did the strike — which Iran and Hamas have blamed on Israel — deepen fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, it has dimmed hopes for a cease-fire deal that could help wind down the catastrophic war in the Gaza Strip and ensure the release of hostages still being held there.

Iran has vowed vengeance after Haniyeh, 62, was killed in a raid on his home in Tehran, according to Hamas. Iran supports a series of militant groups like Hamas, leading Israel to view it as an existential threat.

There was no immediate comment or official confirmation from Israel, which typically remains silent on targeted assassinations. Senior government official Amihai Eliyahu welcomed the killing on Wednesday, saying it had made “the world a little better” in a post on X.

Israel and its allies will likely be looking for a way to contain the impact of Haniyeh’s assassination and an attack Tuesday in Beirut to avoid a “full-fledged war” in the region, said Nimrod Goren, a senior fellow for Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington, D.C.

Bilal Saab, an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based international think tank Chatham House, said a wider war wasn't a certainty.

While it might appear as if "we're getting closer to a war in the region, "ultimately it's unlikely that either Iran or Israel want to go to war against each other, he said.

“That is the ultimate paradox,” said Saab, a former U.S. Defense Department official and head of the U.S.-Middle East practice of Trends Research and Advisory, a consulting firm based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Surging tensions

Both Hamas and Iran almost immediately blamed Haniyeh's assassination on Israel, which had promised to kill Hamas leaders over the group’s Oct. 7 terror attack and had targeted his family and other senior members of the movement.

Hamas and Iran promised vengeance after the assassination, which was carried out after Haniyeh had attended the inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Hamas said Israel had taken “the battle to new dimensions.”

While the United States, Israel's biggest arms supplier (Congress passed a military aid package including $14 billion just a few months ago), did not criticize Israel or blame it for the attack, Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the importance of negotiations.
"I can tell you that the imperative of getting a cease-fire, the importance that that has for everyone, remains," he told journalists in Singapore, adding that it was "vitally important to help" Palestinians in Gaza as well as to get the hostages home.

Blinken, who said the U.S. wasn’t involved in or aware of the attack beforehand, added that officials had been focused on trying to make sure that the war in Gaza doesn’t "escalate." (Source: NBC News)

Story Date: August 1, 2024