With jet fuel prices forcing airlines to raise fares, air travel experts tell Forbes it’s smart to book summer flights now.

Key facts

• Jet fuel, which typically accounts for one fifth to one quarter of airlines’ operating expenses, was $3.93 a gallon Thursday on the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index—up 57% since the U.S. began airstrikes on Iran two weeks ago.

• This week, more than a dozen global airlines—including Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific, Qantas and Scandinavian Airlines—announced they were raising fares and passing on higher fuel surcharges to customers.

• Last week, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned the surge in jet fuel prices meant higher airfares would “start quick.”

While U.S. airline executives insist that travel demand remains strong, they know “if they increase airfares too much or too fast, people will get sticker shock and will hold off on buying,” Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel market research and advisory firm, told Forbes.

• Major U.S. airline stocks are down 16% since the U.S. began airstrikes, according to the Dow Jones U.S. Airline Index, which includes the “big four” carriers—American, Delta, Southwest and United.

What can travelers expect from U.S. airfares this summer?

“U.S. airlines tend not to publicly disclose their pricing actions for fear of those comments being seen as signaling,” Harteveldt told Forbes, adding that Kirby's public statement gave competitors permission, “if they hadn't already begun,” to increase their fares and fuel surges. “I promise you, at the point Kirby said it, United had already begun to quietly increase airfares.” But how much domestic airfares will increase by is still anyone’s guess.

Harteveldt noted the big four airlines tend to attract more affluent customers. “But even United knows if they push airfares too high, bookings will slow, or they will lose more bookings than they will gain,” he told Forbes. “People may continue to book but not as much, or they may choose not to fly in the premium cabin. They may choose not to book the extra legroom seats. So United understands they have to be careful.”

How badly will the Iran war hit airlines’ financial outlooks?

U.S. airlines face an “existential threat” from the surge in jet fuel that is driving their costs dramatically higher, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lindberg wrote this week in a note to investors, adding that the financially weakest carriers could be forced to “halt operations.”

The “big four” airlines could see a combined $5.8 billion in additional fuel costs if prices remain at these elevated levels all year, according to a Reuters analysis. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby last week said the jet fuel price spike will have a “meaningful” impact on first-quarter results and could roll into the second quarter if the war in Iran drags on. (Source: Forbes)

Story Date: March 15, 2026