Early hurricane season forecasts have begun rolling out and will continue over the next several weeks, with the June 1 start to the season in the Atlantic just 68 days away.

AccuWeather, a private weather company, released its seasonal outlook March 25. Its forecast will soon be followed by the research team at Colorado State University, typically in early April, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration later in May, among many others.

With confidence increasing for a strong El Nin?o forming over the summer, the forecasts are expected to take into account the dampening effect that Pacific Ocean climate pattern can have on storms in the Atlantic basin. However, some of the nation's most destructive hurricanes have plowed into the U.S. mainland during an El Nin?o. Think Hurricane Michael in 2018 or Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

What is AccuWeather's hurricane forecast for 2026?

Warm ocean water and rapid intensification of storms close to the U.S. coast are two key concerns for this hurricane season, AccuWeather's forecast warns. But the formation of an El Nin?o in the Pacific Ocean may hold tropical activity to near or below historical average numbers as the season progresses.

The outlook from the team at AccuWeather, a private weather company, released March 25, predicts a season that could be near or below the historical average. The forecast includes:

• 11 to 16 named storms
• 4 to 7 hurricanes
• 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
• 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts

Northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas face a higher-than-average risk of direct hits this season, AccuWeather says, while central and southern Texas could see a lower-than-average risk.

The 30-year historical average for named storms in the Atlantic is 14. AccuWeather predicts a 40% possibility of more than 14 named storms in 2026 and a 15% possibility of more than 16 storms.

Alex DaSilva, the company's lead hurricane expert, emphasized the need to prepare. "It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast," DaSilva said. (Source: USA Today)

Story Date: March 27, 2026