WASHINGTON - (INT) - The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has reaffirmed an impending El Nino, but says there’s “substantial uncertainty” in its peak strength.

“The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026,” the center said Thursday (May 14th).

The CPC said its monthly update “The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.”

There is a 96% chance of an El Nino from December 2026 through February 2027.

Story Date: May 15, 2026